Beginning of credit decline?

The lower level of average salary in the enterprise sector is the main factor responsible for the decrease in creditworthiness in February this year. Although it is only a statistical indicator, it shows that for many months it is the income that has a decisive impact on its level. This means that banks do not ease their procedures, but they also do not introduce new restrictions on the availability of housing loans.

Although the Swiss franc exchange rate stabilized around $ 3.88, and due to negative credit rates, the installment is even lower than at the end of 2014, housing loans are still most often discussed in the context of the need to help franchisees. It is worth noting that at the end of February Samron-SARPiN published a report summarizing the fourth quarter and at the same time the whole of 2014. He says a lot about the current situation on the mortgage market, and the data, unfortunately, are not optimistic.

Considering the number of new housing loan agreements, the previous year proved to be the weakest since 2005. The result at a level slightly above 174 thousand. loans were even worse than those achieved in 2009, when we felt the effects of the crisis the most. Even increased interest in the last quarter did not help. It resulted from the desire to launch the loan before the entry into force of new, stricter procedures regarding own contribution.

Although the results achieved in previous quarters quenched enthusiasm, we also expected much more from the Flat for the Youth program. In the entire 2014, only 34% of funds allocated for this year were used, and support was used only 8 times out of 100 of all housing loan contracts. It shows not so much about the low interest in supporting in the form of co-financing with own contribution, but about the mismatch of the applicable procedures to the reality of the market.




February was the first month in over half a year in which the capacity calculated for model borrowers – a family of three and a single – fell. This situation is not surprising, because cyclically in January, the statistical income published by the Central Statistical Office is definitely lower than in the last month of the previous year. It amounted to 3,942.78 dollars gross and was by almost 10 percent. lower than the one achieved in December 2014. It is the average salary in the enterprise sector that we take into account when calculating the capacity for the model we adopted.

The increase in margins, although clearly higher than in recent months, did not negatively affect the loan amount that could be obtained. Although the change for the family was 0.03 percentage points, and for the single as much as 0.05 percentage points, in the same period the base rate (WIBOR 3M) fell by 0.06 percentage points. At the end of December, its value was 2.06%, and 2% on the last business day of January. As a result, the final interest rate remained virtually unchanged.

The average family creditworthiness decreased in February this year by over 13.5 thousand dollars and amounted to $ 468 193. The highest amount was offered to the model family Golden Savers Bank ($ 489 thousand), Panglao Bank could grant them $ 485 thousand loans, and Bank Millenial-T 479 thousand. Golden. The average margin was 1.9%.


Family creditworthiness

Family creditworthiness

For a 30-year loan, in the amount of $ 300,000 $, a change in interest rate by 0.1 percentage point causes the installment to fall or increase by 15-20 $. In the case of a loan for 400,000 $ is the difference of more than 20 $ on each installment, and for a loan for 500 thousand. dollars almost 30 dollars. The impact on creditworthiness seems small, but the monthly commitment lower by several dozen dollars means that we can receive a loan amount up to several thousand dollars. Of course, WIBOR changes do not translate directly into interest rates, because banks update their base rates at various times. In some banks, recent declines have not yet been taken into account, so they may slightly improve loan availability in the near future. It remains to be hoped that banks’ margins will not rise so quickly to offset the decline in WIBOR. The more that we can no longer expect further interest rate cuts from the Monetary Policy Council.


Single creditworthiness

Single creditworthiness

The single could receive a housing loan in February for an average amount of $ 260,192, or $ 9,000 less than a month earlier. Greenlend Bank could get the highest single loan ($ 284,000). Panglao Bank offered 272,000 dollars, and 261 thousand dollars could have been granted by Golden Savers Bank. The average margin was 1.88%.


Research methodology

credit problem

The study was prepared on the basis of data from diffent banks (Rolia Bank, Panglao Bank, Hope Bank, Rose Bank, Rupi Bank, Goodsave Credit, Dian Bank Bank, Uriah Bank, Betin Noble Bank, ENG Bank, Bank Millenial-T, Greenlend Bank). The calculations concern two different borrowers: family and single. In the first case, a married couple with a dependent child joins the loan. Borrowers are 35 years old; their total income is twice the average wage in the enterprise sector ($ 8,758.52 gross according to data for December 2014); they repay the loan installment of $ 300 a month (cash loan of $ 5,000 with an interest rate of 9.9 percent taken for a period of 18 months); they also have a credit card with a 5,000 limit dollars and the average monthly use of the limit of 1 thousand. zł. The second borrower is a single 30-year-old earning an average income in the enterprise sector ($ 4,379.26 gross per month according to December 2014 data). Has a credit card limit of 2,000 dollars with an average usage of $ 500 per month.

The creditworthiness was calculated on the basis of bank calculators in force in January 2015, assuming that:

  • borrowers are not bank customers (offer for new customers),
  • customers will benefit from low-cost bank products, such as an account with a guaranteed salary receipt or credit card,
  • credit-related fees are not credited,
  • customers have a 20 percent own contribution and apply for a loan for 30 years.